Punch industry fundamentals decline is expected, to inventory will continue.
June 1 ~ 2012, the national machine tool industry complete gross industrial output value of 3654.
5 billion yuan, an increase of 12.
43% growth year-on-year decline in 24.
Achieve sales output value of 3563.
3. 5 billion yuan, an increase of 12.
72% growth year-on-year decline in 24.
The main metal cutting machine tool industry sales of 65. 5 billion yuan, year-on-year decline in 4.
Metal metal sheet forming machine
tool industry sales output value 28. 8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.
Industry in the inventory cycle, the final industry accounts receivable RMB 207. 7 billion, is at the end of the first quarter rose 3.
At the end of the finished goods is 120. 8 billion yuan, from the first quarter rose 6.
New orders 3%, industry still have bigger pressure, good at the bottom of the degree of pain.
The listed company performance reaction industry downturn situation.
11 12 years in the first half of A shares listed companies combined machine tool to achieve business income is 78.
0. 9 billion yuan, year-on-year decline in 17.
Implementation of belonging net profit of listed company 2.
1. 8 billion yuan, down to 55.
The year-on-year net profit in the quarter increased five to nine, only send digital (
And the gateway shares (
11 the listed company's balance sheet, combined in advance payments 19.
800 million yuan, from a year earlier levels in 25.
Listed company balance of deferred revenue decline than revenue decline, new orders in the first half of the company is not optimistic, in the second half we press the performance of listed companies cautious as a whole.
Domestic stock of capital output ratio rises, manufacturing FAI growth driving force.
After nearly a decade of domestic, relying on a huge investment demand, demand inflation accelerated the stock of capital (
Machine tool equipment is part of the capital stock)
Growth, for them: 1.
GDP and the stock of capital keep the same trend growth;
The marginal efficiency of manufacturing investment continued to decline.
So we believe that the future manufacturing investment project (
Returns will continue to render downward trend, and short-term economic growth slowdown will also pose downward pressure to FAI manufacturing investment;
So in the current economic structure transformation, machine tool industry demand growth driving force is insufficient, industry structure adjustment of labor or unavoidable.
Early recovery cycle industry can't stimulate real machine tool industry.
Early cycle industry isn't machine directly to the customer, in the auto industry, for example, the great part of machine tool industry downstream customers are related to the auto parts manufacturing, automotive related industry accounts for 35 - of downstream demand cutting machine
Machine to customer is not a complete vehicle manufacturers, but the secondary components manufacturers or relevant outsourcing machinery factory, the vehicle manufacturing recovery can drive the machine tool demand depends on the extent of recovery, whether able to digest the existing parts manufacturing capability to form a new demand for capital equipment, we are wary.
Policy stimulus infrastructure FAI to new capital requirements;
So considering the manufacturing of such a large capital stock and the low utilization rate of capital, we believe that with the existing policy stimulus just improve manufacturing capital utilization, as manufacturing capital scale, we think that the utilization rate of capital stock picks up the demand of the stimulus will be enough to digest the current policy, it is difficult to drive new large-scale capital formation, at most is the stock of capital structural adjustment, therefore policy relaxation is difficult to produce substantial positive demand for machine tools.
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